Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aeb704f8f1a446ca9ede4226c88c129f56009bb2815f6296a5c6ed9b773a86a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Team Liquid, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22d0…6293backed MOUZ | 47c | 4,641$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.72 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…f688backed MOUZ | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ | 42c | 3,359$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.41 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed MOUZ | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Team Liquid | 50c | 2,950$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid | 56c | 2,560$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.89 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Liquid | 50c | 2,404$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Liquid | 53c | 2,136$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.08 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40c…2d0fbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 2,070$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 46c | 1,017$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.39 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Liquid | 54c | 809.1$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.63 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Team Liquid | 53c | 757.68$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.57 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Liquid | 60c | 754.17$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.5 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Liquid | 56c | 708.87$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Liquid | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Liquid | 54c | 500$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.89 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed MOUZ | 50c | 486.73$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed MOUZ | 47c | 429.97$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.88 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed MOUZ | 42c | 352.57$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.49 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b7…7ffabacked Team Liquid | 53c | 309.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ | 43c | 264.37$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.81 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed Team Liquid | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Team Liquid | 60c | 243.94$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed5…bac1backed Team Liquid | 59c | 220$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Liquid | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Team Liquid | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Team Liquid | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked MOUZ | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed Team Liquid | 60c | 89.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed Team Liquid | 53c | 76.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Liquid | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked MOUZ | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Team Liquid | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MOUZ | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Liquid | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…b0c5backed MOUZ | 63c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed Team Liquid | 42c | 25.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked Team Liquid | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.