TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof MOUZ, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$818,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$931,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $818,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 536 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked MOUZ34c101,981$34,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,828.2128748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid72c47,590$34,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,325.2855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Liquid70c38,571$26,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,670.3811547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Liquid61c34,937$21,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,607.7439660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed MOUZ35c33,056$11,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,561.73850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed MOUZ35c30,692$10,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,736.113045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d3…d9dcbacked MOUZ30c22,782$6,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,828.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Team Liquid64c21,666$13,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,869.673333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid60c17,912$10,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,210.482,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Team Liquid64c17,174$10,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,265.1815047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed MOUZ19c16,450$3,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,157.273644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ20c15,500$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,09089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked MOUZ28c12,570$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,51053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid70c12,222$8,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,655.4932854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid73c10,521$7,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.0796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Liquid65c10,393$6,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,613.2222954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Liquid79c10,261$8,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.942650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db9…c73bbacked Team Liquid75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Liquid51c8,587$4,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,248.1666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed MOUZ35c8,523$2,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.622828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Team Liquid54c8,320$4,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,834.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Team Liquid53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,759.998242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Team Liquid77c7,551$5,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.351353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ45c7,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15055751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3926…7e9ebacked Team Liquid56c5,970$3,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,626.782766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Liquid55c5,690$3,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,543.5933850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed MOUZ20c5,405$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.582751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf801…901cbacked MOUZ35c5,295$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8503834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked MOUZ40c5,203$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0905642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Team Liquid52c5,178$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,509.7310741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked MOUZ20c4,600$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9204443.2%19 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ46c4,346$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.2445139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9dd…7ba6backed MOUZ49c4,077$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed MOUZ60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40021264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked MOUZ28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1209839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8009557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed MOUZ45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8004245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked MOUZ26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Team Liquid64c3,775$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.125964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed MOUZ49c3,648$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.94650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid50c3,591$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.91,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked MOUZ21c3,538$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.8619943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ20c3,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ25c3,437$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.0677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Team Liquid74c3,317$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.1716160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed MOUZ33c3,167$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.982751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked MOUZ22c3,151$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.435549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Liquid65c3,128$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.9230138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid56c3,109$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.82,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked Team Liquid67c3,026$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.995839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed MOUZ46c3,013$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.726256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed MOUZ45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35019742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Team Liquid74c3,000$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.353336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x58bb…dd34backed Team Liquid80c2,930$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed MOUZ17c2,873$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.479345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid72c2,778$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.7854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed MOUZ14c2,758$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.1965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Liquid79c2,679$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.877357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ29c2,645$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.0628341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ19c2,598$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.7460542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ff…a353backed Team Liquid78c2,590$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.33043.3%13 W · 17 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-33.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Team Liquid55c2,548$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.6719148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Team Liquid80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed MOUZ39c2,370$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.9823746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ17c2,352$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.8864744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c5f…ced0backed Team Liquid78c2,293$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.253259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c67…a813backed Team Liquid75c2,100$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed MOUZ20c1,968$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.918137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Team Liquid55c1,822$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.678957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed MOUZ19c1,778$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.155935.6%21 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc18…2ce9backed Team Liquid72c1,706$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.563850%19 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed MOUZ21c1,699$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.796850%34 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Liquid59c1,691$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.6171454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked MOUZ47c1,615$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7541060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked MOUZ16c1,595$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ31c1,579$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.621,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked MOUZ6c1,541$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f0…d2a1backed Team Liquid52c1,517$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb22a…8e6cbacked Team Liquid80c1,512$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed MOUZ21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ47c1,500$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.3638049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed MOUZ20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003928.2%11 W · 28 L-7.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed MOUZ21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9918550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ11c1,484$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2940014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Team Liquid72c1,458$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.3321346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefa1…8a16backed MOUZ27c1,433$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.381145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f72…adc6backed Team Liquid75c1,428$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.063066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d4…5702backed MOUZ21c1,407$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed Team Liquid71c1,404$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.258164.2%52 W · 29 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed MOUZ21c1,400$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.354141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed MOUZ21c1,344$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.3517740.7%72 W · 105 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb0…8ababacked MOUZ46c1,340$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6193638.9%14 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ30c1,323$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed MOUZ20c1,297$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.3522727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Team Liquid71c1,272$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.416066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid72c1,264$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.3579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Team Liquid80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Team Liquid70c1,249$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.4628650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed MOUZ21c1,231$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.521833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30088166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.