TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$271,850
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,850 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ34c55,874$18,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,032.7455157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid75c15,777$11,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,802.5632854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Liquid75c15,262$11,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,446.4439660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ23c13,139$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,059.4445139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Liquid41c11,056$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,528.6253451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid73c10,916$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.8496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Team Liquid42c9,981$4,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,186.02850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Team Liquid39c8,964$3,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,529.383333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ45c6,568$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,628.6666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc9dd…7ba6backed MOUZ31c6,504$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,503.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ26c6,476$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,792.5742650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid75c6,027$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Liquid38c5,172$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.7915946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed MOUZ25c5,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,75017651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed MOUZ38c4,345$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.357143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed MOUZ44c4,282$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.4910741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked MOUZ25c4,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00016248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked MOUZ26c4,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.999839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed MOUZ58c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47011647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Liquid75c3,407$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.9128748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Team Liquid75c3,222$2,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,416.1511359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ26c2,618$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.3577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed MOUZ24c2,465$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.79345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ45c2,423$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.872,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ26c2,304$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.1528341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MOUZ26c2,215$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.3825549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50055751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Team Liquid74c1,997$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.4225457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Team Liquid74c1,973$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46014747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf801…901cbacked MOUZ27c1,852$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.853834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Team Liquid75c1,797$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34816160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked Team Liquid75c1,761$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3261060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Team Liquid67c1,730$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.0714443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a97…2ffbbacked Team Liquid75c1,687$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.9720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Team Liquid67c1,634$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.213455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked MOUZ56c1,506$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.89858.2%57 W · 41 L-0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed MOUZ28c1,498$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.1615653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f72…adc6backed Team Liquid70c1,465$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.943066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69e3…0078backed Team Liquid71c1,414$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid73c1,400$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02288166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Liquid65c1,361$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.546664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Team Liquid75c1,333$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.465964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed MOUZ24c1,300$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98280742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Team Liquid76c1,288$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.378655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid74c1,284$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.3579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Team Liquid40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Liquid40c1,249$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7517546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Team Liquid75c1,233$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92221346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed MOUZ60c1,117$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.1134468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Liquid19c1,100$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20864149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Liquid72c1,100$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.9922954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cbe…d7e1backed MOUZ28c1,071$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.03333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed MOUZ26c1,065$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7892646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed MOUZ26c999.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.992045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a65…ffcdbacked MOUZ28c966.92$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.629051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Liquid75c933.33$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70071454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x05b8…1762backed MOUZ31c903.23$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.232347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ57c877.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.5460646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Team Liquid75c869.24$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.9323459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f5…3382backed Team Liquid77c868.7$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7d9…6e70backed Team Liquid76c851.07$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid55c845.55$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.372,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed Team Liquid80c832.57$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6666566.2%43 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Liquid74c810.88$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60012948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Team Liquid58c806.58$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46910260.8%62 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ24c798.85$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.641,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed MOUZ65c765.75$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1218075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Team Liquid31c700$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21726661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Team Liquid74c671.95$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4988060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Liquid76c654.15$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.7562650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eda…4498backed Team Liquid77c639.99$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.1910562.9%66 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Liquid77c576.03$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.0236051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked MOUZ26c562.41$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.5116440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked MOUZ26c560.72$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.9329548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Liquid69c550.19$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.6458152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebd…2c43backed Team Liquid56c536.95$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked MOUZ15c528.27$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.035550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed MOUZ16c522.22$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.2860251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed MOUZ31c503.23$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.238726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3751,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2109…55bfbacked Team Liquid69c500$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3472962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Team Liquid46c500$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23113732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Team Liquid43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x910a…9e92backed Team Liquid45c449$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002045%9 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Liquid61c430$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.9523050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Liquid70c422.48$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.481,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…50debacked Team Liquid69c401.88$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.31735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked Team Liquid75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004072.5%29 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x76ff…a353backed Team Liquid75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003043.3%13 W · 17 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-33.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed MOUZ23c383$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.9110741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed MOUZ23c379.68$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.3831245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ24c375$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.2556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ27c349.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e8a…42a0backed MOUZ29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.831258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Liquid43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12961548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed MOUZ61c298.72$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.119664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Liquid69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe506…7580backed Team Liquid70c285.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…89d0backed Team Liquid79c270.49$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.694967.3%33 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.