Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Slovenj Gradec Men: Maximilian Figl vs Luca Castagnola
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b0636d6e0d7683deea2dedd92aab6a6ed7785a61be8807648f22464a81b61a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luca Castagnolaof Maximilian Figl, Luca Castagnola
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Maximilian Figl | 58c | 1,984$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.81 | 226 | 62.8%142 W · 84 L | +15.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Maximilian Figl | 59c | 1,855$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.36 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Luca Castagnola | 42c | 553.89$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.14 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Luca Castagnola | 42c | 543.79$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.4 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Luca Castagnola | 42c | 497.01$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.47 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Maximilian Figl | 60c | 456.97$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.52 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Luca Castagnola | 40c | 423$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.8 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…999abacked Maximilian Figl | 58c | 393.92$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.36 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maximilian Figl | 14c | 348$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Luca Castagnola | 48c | 345.93$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.06 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Maximilian Figl | 40c | 298.84$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Maximilian Figl | 60c | 223.62$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed Maximilian Figl | 60c | 193.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…b1fbbacked Maximilian Figl | 66c | 180.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Luca Castagnola | 42c | 145.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Luca Castagnola | 53c | 135.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Luca Castagnola | 43c | 135.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked Maximilian Figl | 59c | 134.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Maximilian Figl | 34c | 133.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Luca Castagnola | 67c | 130.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Luca Castagnola | 54c | 129.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 434 | 44.9%195 W · 239 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Luca Castagnola | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…e129backed Maximilian Figl | 57c | 106$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Luca Castagnola | 41c | 104.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Luca Castagnola | 40c | 87.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Luca Castagnola | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Luca Castagnola | 54c | 52.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Luca Castagnola | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Luca Castagnola | 40c | 48.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…28d4backed Maximilian Figl | 31c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…b2f4backed Maximilian Figl | 58c | 33.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0868…efe8backed Luca Castagnola | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…9962backed Maximilian Figl | 59c | 29.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…2ff5backed Maximilian Figl | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -51%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Luca Castagnola | 66c | 25.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Maximilian Figl | 47c | 25.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Luca Castagnola | 67c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Luca Castagnola | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Luca Castagnola | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Maximilian Figl | 65c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.