TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ITF M25 Slovenj Gradec Men: Maximilian Figl vs Luca Castagnola

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Luca Castagnolaof Maximilian Figl, Luca Castagnola
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f71…b2e4backed Maximilian Figl58c1,984$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.8122662.8%142 W · 84 L+15.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Maximilian Figl59c1,855$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.362,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Luca Castagnola42c553.89$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.1478838.2%301 W · 487 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Luca Castagnola42c543.79$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.44,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Luca Castagnola42c497.01$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.476,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Maximilian Figl60c456.97$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.5212659.5%75 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Luca Castagnola40c423$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.84,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4eb…999abacked Maximilian Figl58c393.92$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.363857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Maximilian Figl14c348$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.724,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Luca Castagnola48c345.93$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.061,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Maximilian Figl40c298.84$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9448947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Maximilian Figl60c223.62$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4616561.2%101 W · 64 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed Maximilian Figl60c193.83$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9715956%89 W · 70 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb284…b1fbbacked Maximilian Figl66c180.11$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.394247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Luca Castagnola42c145.56$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.033,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Luca Castagnola53c135.4$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.671,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Luca Castagnola43c135.27$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0264837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5452…d12ebacked Maximilian Figl59c134.7$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.865457.4%31 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Maximilian Figl34c133.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.523,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Luca Castagnola67c130.24$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.098,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Luca Castagnola54c129.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0343444.9%195 W · 239 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3b…9035backed Luca Castagnola40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7530755%169 W · 138 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89ca…e129backed Maximilian Figl57c106$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.31258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Luca Castagnola41c104.87$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.085,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Luca Castagnola40c87.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.332,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Luca Castagnola53c65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.551,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Luca Castagnola54c52.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9978857.1%450 W · 338 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Luca Castagnola42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.256,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Luca Castagnola40c48.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.121,00838.3%386 W · 622 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f1…28d4backed Maximilian Figl31c36.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.234266.7%28 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…b2f4backed Maximilian Figl58c33.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0868…efe8backed Luca Castagnola50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29fd…9962backed Maximilian Figl59c29.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ae…2ff5backed Maximilian Figl45c26.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-51%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Luca Castagnola66c25.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7887741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Maximilian Figl47c25.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-82.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Luca Castagnola67c21.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1444729.3%131 W · 316 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Luca Castagnola77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Luca Castagnola68c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.72,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…a242backed Maximilian Figl65c16.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.557262.5%45 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.