Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs LUA Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b080fcd5bc2367605c04c49460af28271f14868608e5b20b0739ca5631d37a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Heretics Academyof Team Heretics Academy, LUA Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed LUA Gaming | 16c | 2,741$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.56 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed LUA Gaming | 16c | 2,286$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.62 | 411 | 33.8%139 W · 272 L | -28.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked LUA Gaming | 17c | 1,529$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed LUA Gaming | 17c | 1,424$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked LUA Gaming | 16c | 1,263$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked LUA Gaming | 17c | 1,193$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…e868backed LUA Gaming | 18c | 1,090$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…f923backed LUA Gaming | 18c | 788.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed LUA Gaming | 15c | 589.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 169 | 33.1%56 W · 113 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed LUA Gaming | 15c | 471$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Heretics Academy | 65c | 419.67$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.53 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…0261backed LUA Gaming | 16c | 410.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked LUA Gaming | 16c | 380.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | -13.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed LUA Gaming | 15c | 299.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 160 | 35%56 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…a142backed LUA Gaming | 14c | 244.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…60cfbacked LUA Gaming | 15c | 206.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c3…a13dbacked LUA Gaming | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed LUA Gaming | 14c | 158.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,905 | 38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L | -118.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked LUA Gaming | 18c | 156.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked LUA Gaming | 12c | 144.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 602 | 43.4%261 W · 341 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed LUA Gaming | 16c | 94.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 751 | 42.1%316 W · 435 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Team Heretics Academy | 48c | 53.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a30…5d10backed Team Heretics Academy | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs LUA Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: LUA Gaming vs Team Heretics Academy (BO3) - LES Regular SeasonTeam Heretics Academy won
- LoL: LUA Gaming vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Heretics Academy won
- LoL: LUA Gaming vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Heretics Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.