South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b22a62216cbab1a2c0912b270a725c2406d20b9f59a746bb92e4a48c899fc93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 26c | 18,493$4,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,891.48 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 74c | 8,000$5,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 5,830$4,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.1 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 74c | 1,944$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.22 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 73c | 1,027$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.29 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 73c | 484.88$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 411.55$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 333.05$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 74c | 124.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 114.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 74c | 98.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 145 | 63.4%92 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…9548backed Under | 74c | 39.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 76c | 32.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 76c | 30.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Under | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Boca Juniors 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Boca Juniors O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Newell's Old Boys 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Newell's Old Boys O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.