Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b396b26909a3e47a4b81f84421236db9cfe4e6315e2613102fbc92c697b1d85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed No | 2c | 821.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 748.12$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 443.62$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 194.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 79c | 179.66$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 53c | 173.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 55c | 153$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 21c | 151$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 32c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 46c | 149.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 140.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 38c | 135.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 26c | 113.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 108.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 100.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 29c | 91.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 27c | 91.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 86.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 29c | 86.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 81.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 62.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 49c | 61.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 41c | 60.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 45c | 52.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 61c | 50.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…307cbacked No | 71c | 50.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 48.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 51c | 44.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 38.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 57c | 36.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 56c | 35.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 32c | 34.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 52c | 33.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed Yes | 79c | 33.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 37c | 31.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 49c | 28.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 45c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 52c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 48c | 24.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 52c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 22.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 47c | 21.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 55c | 20.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 20.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 79c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…e255backed Yes | 74c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.