Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Cerundolo vs Buse
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b4f3f11644d786fb80ebb998963aa7f0e974b48d26fdafe9a32c6a30aa7fcec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Buse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ad0…7150backed Buse | 47c | 971.94$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.16 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…bee1backed Buse | 62c | 646.49$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Cerundolo | 60c | 630.18$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.55 | 6,725 | 46.2%3,108 W · 3,617 L | -42.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cerundolo | 53c | 495.94$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.82 | 4,708 | 48.3%2,275 W · 2,433 L | +36.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Buse | 50c | 430$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1,454 | 28.5%414 W · 1,040 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Buse | 58c | 413.18$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…58e8backed Cerundolo | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Cerundolo | 38c | 330.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.65 | 1,789 | 48.7%872 W · 917 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cerundolo | 54c | 241.53$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 5,600 | 48.5%2,717 W · 2,883 L | +10.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Buse | 18c | 183.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 5,031 | 38.5%1,939 W · 3,092 L | -20.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Cerundolo | 40c | 163$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 591 | 48.4%286 W · 305 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Buse | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Buse | 29c | 73.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cerundolo | 38c | 45.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 258 | 28.3%73 W · 185 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…1d02backed Cerundolo | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 50cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…e64abacked Cerundolo | 38c | 30.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Cerundolo vs Busethis page
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs BuseBuse won
- Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Cerundolo won
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5)Buse won
- Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio BuseIgnacio Buse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.