UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b5153a4ff2425731749995a635806a83f809cf8bca21c9d9297571cd563e291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 70c | 901.95$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.18 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 30c | 594.63$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.24 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Over | 71c | 392.3$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.53 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 29c | 364.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.98 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 27c | 269.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.17 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…6a07backed Over | 74c | 175.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Over | 72c | 62.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Over | 70c | 48.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…c50bbacked Over | 69c | 15.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main Card)Bernardo Sopaj won
- Will Bernardo Sopaj win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Timmy Cuamba win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.