Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b69814333a79430d39099ef1d348b9c37aa4f1c45dd9608277029ad7e689797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 2,550$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.5 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,498$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.83 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.04 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…d15cbacked No | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2839…aa29backed No | 73c | 1,361$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 74c | 1,271$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.49 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 26c | 1,168$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.71 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 808$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 1,426 | 40.8%582 W · 844 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 26c | 624.68$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 614.72$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 380$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1,933 | 45.3%876 W · 1,057 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 70c | 298.28$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 26c | 277.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…3b7bbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…dcd3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 31c | 63.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…87a7backed No | 75c | 61.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…c35bbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 26c | 50.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…b47dbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…a5dbbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 72c | 49.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked No | 74c | 40.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 71c | 39.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?this page
- Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-29?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.