CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Rare Atom (BO5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7b34d33216a7bd98c6e7644e527b579b9b983331929d7fb3ac031ac7a650c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rare Atomof Morningstar, Rare Atom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed Rare Atom | 71c | 10,863$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,162.9 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Morningstar | 57c | 7,719$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,394.37 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Morningstar | 18c | 5,674$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.23 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Morningstar | 25c | 2,944$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.97 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Morningstar | 4c | 1,405$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Morningstar | 10c | 1,152$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Morningstar | 51c | 960$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.55 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Morningstar | 12c | 709.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 165 | 27.9%46 W · 119 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Morningstar | 18c | 567.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Morningstar | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Rare Atom | 71c | 419.98$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Morningstar | 47c | 376.5$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.89 | 618 | 54.9%339 W · 279 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Morningstar | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 355 | 45.1%160 W · 195 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Morningstar | 11c | 250.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…c6c7backed Morningstar | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 151 | 51.7%78 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…6c0dbacked Rare Atom | 70c | 220$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…a9bebacked Morningstar | 17c | 210.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Rare Atom | 47c | 197$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Morningstar | 11c | 186.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Rare Atom | 76c | 158.73$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 476 | 65.1%310 W · 166 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…30c4backed Morningstar | 20c | 124.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Morningstar | 23c | 114$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 489 | 41.9%205 W · 284 L | -14.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…007dbacked Rare Atom | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba9…2ccabacked Morningstar | 38c | 106.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Morningstar | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 56.3%295 W · 229 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Rare Atom | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Morningstar | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Rare Atom | 61c | 76.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Rare Atom | 57c | 73.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Rare Atom | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf016…b9c8backed Rare Atom | 48c | 59.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…54cbbacked Rare Atom | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed Rare Atom | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Rare Atom (BO5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Rare Atom - Map 2 WinnerRare Atom won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.