Mls · resolved market
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7d1cd57da5c881048fba34b45ef04a5d94aae3f742d53414cc97fce85fd086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd178…6703backed Yes | 67c | 3,467$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 32c | 2,065$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.16 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 33c | 923.42$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.48 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 29c | 750.68$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.97 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 28c | 287.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 66c | 230$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 33c | 195.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 11c | 194.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 33c | 151.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed No | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 78c | 134.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 67c | 125.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 65c | 111.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Yes | 68c | 108.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 67c | 105.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 15c | 97.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 16c | 92.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 35c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 33c | 81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6344…b9a7backed Yes | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 64c | 50.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 31c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed Yes | 58c | 30.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…9977backed No | 43c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 68c | 22.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…bdb5backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 67c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 73c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.