Earnings · resolved market
Will Helen of Troy (HELE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7e81eb5a5b5b33f6c96d13192c4512411cf58fe73c4fb3f4dad39bb8e90991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb02…396dbacked Yes | 50c | 20,100$10,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,050 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf0…e5bdbacked No | 50c | 20,100$10,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 14,187$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 61c | 960.34$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.47 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 424.29$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.59 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…b20abacked No | 65c | 307.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x451b…2b0abacked No | 71c | 185.72$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 29c | 137.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked No | 68c | 124.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 21c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f75…9004backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 55c | 88.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked No | 59c | 85.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 55c | 54.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…9ac0backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked No | 69c | 34.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…885abacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.