Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb1bf61f6dc068f95cdc8aeab70b6a3d291e05e7042884043fde825f800e980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 46c | 10,730$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,892.52 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 59c | 8,310$4,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.6 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 78c | 2,845$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 40c | 2,459$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.07 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 14c | 2,229$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.11 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.97 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 77c | 1,122$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.75 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 44c | 689.31$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.92 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…c26abacked Yes | 29c | 660.28$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.8 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed No | 38c | 633.42$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.7 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…bbdabacked No | 34c | 564.94$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 561.43$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.25 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…8189backed No | 28c | 409.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 350$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 56c | 314.49$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 29c | 297.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.96 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 44c | 289.92$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 31c | 228.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 54c | 214.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 34c | 197.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…f6e2backed Yes | 76c | 191$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Yes | 79c | 190.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…691abacked Yes | 76c | 190.03$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 21c | 181.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 161.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 102.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 29c | 99.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 37c | 98.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 95.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 47c | 94.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 39c | 90.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 39c | 90.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 39c | 90.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 48c | 86.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 71c | 84.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 36c | 79.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…197dbacked No | 24c | 78.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 33c | 78.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Yes | 78c | 72.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 72.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 29c | 61.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 29c | 57.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 77c | 51.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 71c | 50.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 40c | 43.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed No | 71c | 41.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 40.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 72c | 40.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 71c | 37.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 34c | 34.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…facfbacked Yes | 76c | 31.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked No | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Yes | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 71c | 24.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Yes | 79c | 24.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 73c | 22.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 73c | 22.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…240cbacked Yes | 64c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…9944backed No | 71c | 18.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 75c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Yes | 65c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afc…c2f2backed Yes | 73c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…a9abbacked Yes | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 75c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Yes | 78c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.