Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ca2b4cacad4f06f3ec1653e9c9e999e07cfc257e3736c2948687a03bb0d93ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 17c | 5,671$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.05 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed No | 80c | 3,721$2,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 17c | 2,414$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.15 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 21c | 1,100$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 20c | 1,095$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.85 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 20c | 920.4$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.08 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Yes | 22c | 738.3$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 23c | 679.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 596.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 24c | 399.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 22c | 381.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 13c | 361.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 19c | 315.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 16c | 286.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 21c | 281.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 77c | 253.93$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 22c | 227.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 23c | 215.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…8ca3backed Yes | 11c | 198.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Yes | 25c | 195.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 182.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 167.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 20c | 156.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Yes | 23c | 152.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -5.0wins | -0.39per pick | 46cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 22c | 142.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 22c | 125.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed Yes | 19c | 125.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 125.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 23c | 124.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 16c | 119.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 12c | 118.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Yes | 17c | 118.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…1991backed Yes | 13c | 115.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…6ab0backed Yes | 25c | 96.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 92.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…25e1backed Yes | 22c | 87.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…8525backed Yes | 23c | 83.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…2245backed Yes | 16c | 83.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Yes | 24c | 59.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…8be6backed Yes | 22c | 48.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 23c | 47.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 79c | 40.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 78c | 36.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked No | 79c | 31.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 76c | 25.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 73c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?Yes won
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.