Serie A · resolved market
Will Udinese win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c0376045bb4299d1ba2a1d885a4b57d6d1afad398298649e2ea70f6794013c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes | 32c | 44,479$14,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,233.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 9,587$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.98 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed No | 70c | 5,748$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 29c | 3,785$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 2,239$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.42 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f9…66ffbacked Yes | 30c | 1,818$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…a48dbacked No | 71c | 1,818$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be7…4690backed Yes | 30c | 1,795$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…296dbacked No | 71c | 1,794$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…3ec1backed No | 70c | 1,785$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…50f0backed Yes | 31c | 1,784$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 68c | 1,176$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.47 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 68c | 808.73$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.39 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 29c | 563$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 15c | 400.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 32c | 168.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 156.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 28c | 147.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 71c | 141.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 16c | 131.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 68c | 130.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 72c | 64.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -8.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…e338backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Udinese win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Udinese end in a draw?No won
- Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.