Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c3a54ff9169099e56cead28d99fd00d68b367f9ce94233f96d56c0f5c8babc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa69…6e45backed Under | 51c | 610$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…ef63backed Over | 48c | 610$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…c217backed Under | 51c | 545$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.05 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…0fd9backed Over | 48c | 545$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 49c | 531.15$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 50c | 383.81$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.9 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Over | 51c | 296.08$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 283.79$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…bf95backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 259 | 53.3%138 W · 121 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93a…8a46backed Under | 53c | 101.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…b24fbacked Over | 50c | 101$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…b162backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…b133backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Under | 46c | 81.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 47c | 73.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 50c | 68.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…3e4ebacked Over | 53c | 56.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…4bd2backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771b…6411backed Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Over | 52c | 47.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…4b77backed Over | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 50c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…824abacked Over | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…504cbacked Over | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 54c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)Tundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.