Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will NAC Breda vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c4b21a8efe1482bb378a41d19657eafd71fa23a23b84b05eb52ad2d15ccb3f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 1,573$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.2 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,373$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.44 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 27c | 1,090$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.6 | 103 | 23.3%24 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 824.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 627.55$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.01 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 27c | 370.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…895bbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 26c | 275$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 270.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 216.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…b220backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 121.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 25c | 85.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…8275backed Yes | 25c | 74.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 73c | 69.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…e4bdbacked Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb0…30d3backed No | 75c | 61.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 24c | 58.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 25c | 54.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 297 | 42.8%127 W · 170 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…81e0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…d8dcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfa…e7afbacked Yes | 30c | 36.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 75c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 75c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NAC Breda vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?this page
- Will NAC Breda win on 2026-02-06?No won
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-02-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.