MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c590456b2bcae10d6248b71151127ed7163eec2a3a1163e90df54762c07fac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 2,658$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.98 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 2,626$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.29 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 2,606$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.22 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 2,081$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.83 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Over | 50c | 1,455$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 1,095$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.88 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,027$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.81 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 794.59$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 53c | 580$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.8 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 539.97$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 45c | 520$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Over | 64c | 418.08$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.57 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 340.4$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 49c | 276.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 48c | 257.86$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 250$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Under | 39c | 236.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.28 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 53c | 175.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 51c | 170.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 51c | 170.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 51c | 166.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 50c | 113.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 63c | 89.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 47.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 64c | 45.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 48c | 44.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 48c | 42.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Under | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Under | 75c | 40.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 52c | 35.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 61c | 35.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 49c | 34.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 58c | 29.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 39c | 28.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…8b81backed Under | 52c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 52c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas RangersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.