Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c76c8c3f8267385f3468f0e66fde07aa44110c4d178b62e55c700ad819141d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bellucciof Hanfmann, Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Bellucci | 68c | 13,924$9,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,424.26 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hanfmann | 31c | 5,616$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.96 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Hanfmann | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Hanfmann | 32c | 1,231$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.98 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Hanfmann | 32c | 1,152$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.72 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Hanfmann | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.8 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Hanfmann | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Hanfmann | 34c | 900.01$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.58 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Bellucci | 60c | 834$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bellucci | 68c | 718.75$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Hanfmann | 33c | 605.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Hanfmann | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Hanfmann | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Bellucci | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Hanfmann | 37c | 274.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Bellucci | 69c | 225$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Hanfmann | 30c | 187.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Hanfmann | 44c | 150.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bellucci | 57c | 114.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bellucci | 64c | 98.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Hanfmann | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Bellucci | 64c | 81.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…aa22backed Hanfmann | 22c | 74.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Hanfmann | 37c | 67.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 18.5%15 W · 66 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hanfmann | 25c | 66.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Hanfmann | 34c | 55.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Hanfmann | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Hanfmann | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Bellucci | 66c | 47.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Hanfmann | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Hanfmann | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Bellucci | 65c | 27.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Bellucci | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Bellucci | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Bellucci | 65c | 18.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Bellucci | 64c | 18.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Bellucci | 64c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)this page
- Mattia Bellucci vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs HanfmannBellucci won
- Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick HanfmannMattia Bellucci won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.