NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c8c1c4c9f10119da92beee3d09e7c5d9e9c0913552fd7d77d0d8caefa7f3ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 76c | 7,277$5,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.69 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Under | 22c | 3,745$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 24c | 1,534$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.04 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 27c | 1,452$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.19 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 77c | 1,367$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.3 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 28c | 402.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Under | 22c | 347.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 78c | 321.74$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 26c | 168$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 28c | 136.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 26c | 107.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Under | 37c | 64.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 63c | 64.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 28c | 53.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Over | 65c | 39.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…8592backed Over | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5this page
- Oilers vs. SharksSharks won
- Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.