Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c9cc617d60ccbe913fb16d954f9684fed145e6394fa4a9a99f55f1e008c910c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hamburger SV | 75c | 3,041$2,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 1,250$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.83 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 23c | 999$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 27c | 940.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Hamburger SV | 74c | 666$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 662.32$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…0e21backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 27c | 610.72$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…775bbacked Hamburger SV | 73c | 610.72$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 22c | 148.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Hamburger SV | 73c | 101.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Hamburger SV | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 23c | 67.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 21c | 52.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 46.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Hamburger SV | 80c | 24.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Hamburger SV | 76c | 23.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Hamburger SV | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.