Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd7a0e7e54c42edfb467e751bff69567486abf27c1c0d56d2609b00c81681df8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Under | 1c | 7,665$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 1c | 7,344$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.27per pick | 10cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 6,561$4,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,558.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…3b26backed Over | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Under | 2c | 2,637$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 1c | 1,458$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 996.71$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 26c | 568.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.91 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 453.62$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.34 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 32c | 380$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 11c | 341$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 32c | 294$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 23c | 273.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.91 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 28c | 212.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.41 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 26c | 211.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 77c | 199.61$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 58c | 171.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 74c | 164.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…ce96backed Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 20c | 140$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 19c | 129.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 46c | 120.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 23c | 75.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…5737backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 47.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Over | 30c | 44.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 72c | 41.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…bdf6backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 79c | 35.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 57c | 34.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 63c | 34.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…556fbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 44c | 27.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c60…ba30backed Under | 56c | 23.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 23.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…7b79backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Under | 68c | 15.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Under | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.