MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ca0dc31c6eb20814bb479fc85b3d583d354346725ab8def5b83736e2242de83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 4,072$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.45 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 3,479$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.49 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 498.74$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 406$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 358.44$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 335$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…8c93backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 244.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 199.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 188$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 188$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 171.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 87.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 75.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…9bacbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 69.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7599…4293backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 57.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 48.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…4861backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 33.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 22.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.