MLB · resolved market
ALDS: Royals vs. Yankees Game 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cb6b29c8beaeb5a278afcd12edc50cad37c79d6b8b20bc0cce008634a3cb77a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Royals, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Royals | 48c | 22,679$10,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,994.57 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…9c0abacked Yankees | 52c | 17,025$8,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,171.97 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yankees | 50c | 11,407$5,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,696.92 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7a…3ef4backed Royals | 50c | 2,158$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f0…1af3backed Yankees | 51c | 2,157$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e785backed Yankees | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2f…746cbacked Royals | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yankees | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Yankees | 50c | 999.97$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed Royals | 48c | 999.93$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…0850backed Yankees | 52c | 980.38$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…cbdfbacked Royals | 50c | 980.38$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d5…7b65backed Yankees | 51c | 980$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380d…58a1backed Royals | 49c | 979.17$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe66…4fd4backed Yankees | 53c | 972.73$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…af59backed Royals | 50c | 972.17$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Royals | 14c | 715.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df1…9ce4backed Yankees | 51c | 626.86$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed Royals | 49c | 499.95$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…73f2backed Royals | 49c | 406.44$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…43f6backed Yankees | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…af35backed Yankees | 52c | 398$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Royals | 50c | 389.26$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.63 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…4b06backed Yankees | 52c | 372.88$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…7c4bbacked Royals | 50c | 372.2$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Royals | 49c | 335.3$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yankees | 50c | 332.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Royals | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Royals | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Yankees | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yankees | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yankees | 50c | 180.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked Royals | 49c | 145.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Royals | 50c | 113.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…2c98backed Yankees | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…91e2backed Royals | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yankees | 51c | 101.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Yankees | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Yankees | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yankees | 50c | 91.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…db7dbacked Royals | 49c | 87.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…797fbacked Royals | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Yankees | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…e82cbacked Yankees | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…0220backed Yankees | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yankees | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked Yankees | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Royals | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…3eacbacked Yankees | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf1…f22bbacked Yankees | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yankees | 52c | 34.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Royals | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yankees | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c4…bcb5backed Royals | 49c | 25.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…5e13backed Yankees | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yankees | 49c | 21.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…0546backed Royals | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Yankees | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.