Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Liepāja win on 2026-07-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ceffbd9122ec889b7c0fc9193b93bfc8a28d79c30a2a436a0000ffb4a23871c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef84…6872backed No | 1c | 7,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,845$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.08 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 72c | 1,586$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.14 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 53c | 1,016$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.7 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…ca87backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 422.07$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.51 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 60c | 310.45$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.99 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 79c | 213.5$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 210.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 64c | 199.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 71c | 172.88$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed No | 61c | 146.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 21c | 125.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 123.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…7ad0backed No | 36c | 121.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 65c | 119$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 49c | 118.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked No | 33c | 106.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 46c | 99.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 22c | 98.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 69c | 84.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…6b36backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…dc21backed No | 37c | 56.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…5e9fbacked Yes | 71c | 49.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 36c | 47.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f6…6ccabacked Yes | 77c | 44.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 35c | 43.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -7.5wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked No | 37c | 38.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 56c | 19.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Liepāja win on 2026-07-15?this page
- Will FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja end in a draw?No won
- Will FK Dečić Tuzi win on 2026-07-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.