Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cf2b47e9a794ca615deb7f57a039056d1a8f503f70362163abc966cd6ae94b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 332.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 34c | 325.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 17c | 325.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed No | 67c | 211.81$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 64c | 181.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 167.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 139.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 19c | 117.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 113.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 103$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 99.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 63c | 91.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 15c | 78.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 72.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 50c | 66.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 60.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 63c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 23c | 54.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 52c | 49.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 59c | 33.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 48c | 31.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 63c | 31.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 23.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.