Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebf0a90ce42574eccfee6b698a64875e83a429963f44116936e0dd3a22ae68f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 47c | 391.33$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.73 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 299.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 222$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 69c | 180.58$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 174.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 63c | 130.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 31c | 123.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 120.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 112.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 34c | 105.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 102.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 100.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…2377backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 99.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 90.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 66.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 57.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 53.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 50.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 47.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 44.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 63c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 38.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 38.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 37.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 65c | 34.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb762…bbfebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 40c | 29.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked No | 70c | 28.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 28.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 27.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 26.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 22.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 65c | 20.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 68c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 64c | 18.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 16.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.