Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cfff85dd88c6d49eb54972f0ceec676cb1b43b8376e8233a9a36b8a3c0dd818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,351 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 8c | 682.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 586.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 454.71$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 42c | 354.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.46 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 296.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 283.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 20c | 273.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 266.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 18c | 199.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 80c | 182.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 14c | 178.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 157.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 140.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 118.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 112.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…77eebacked Yes | 19c | 108.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 102.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 35c | 101.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 74c | 100.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 95.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 19c | 79.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 17c | 72.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…1c90backed Yes | 20c | 71.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…2a6bbacked Yes | 23c | 69.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 65.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 27c | 60.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 30c | 57.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 70c | 55.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 76c | 53.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 28c | 53.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…b29bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 31c | 43.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 39.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 34.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 28.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 77c | 23.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 76c | 22.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 72c | 22.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 77c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.