TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,352 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f5b…e747backed Yes56c623.91$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.673452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes3c570$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.781234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No70c463.83$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c399.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Yes61c381.44$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.522133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes56c301.21$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3229137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes47c300$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.646950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc6…e280backed Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962015%3 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No36c299.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.994,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42fd…96c0backed No68c299.84$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.322060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c288.09$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes39c257.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes15c237.89$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.213023.3%7 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Yes62c229.6$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.811936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb070…5726backed Yes6c208.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes30c200.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0611126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c175.39$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.243,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No71c170.85$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8429558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No72c163.14$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.081,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c149.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.936219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…cdf7backed No50c143.26$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.262045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x884f…c132backed Yes63c143.08$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes35c141.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.271,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No37c136.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3159440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No39c121.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.088,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes28c120.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2319426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c119.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.837,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c116.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.33,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c111.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0bbf…9047backed Yes11c106.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes12c104$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.483225%8 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+190.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes63c99.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.997229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c94.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.923,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c92.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No57c90.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.362,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No67c87.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7452245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…6387backed Yes33c84.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.25928.8%17 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes33c76.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes44c74.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9323231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes34c73.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No46c72.19$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9963323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes35c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.215911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No50c62.52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.991,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No51c58.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.59520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125812.1%7 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.868239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc57…ce71backed No51c48.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.771872.2%13 W · 5 L+6.1wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+96.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No38c47.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.552,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.946,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6754…9e72backed Yes30c44.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52025%5 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…fef7backed Yes68c43.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a96…5d51backed No68c41.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.142352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.866735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce2…80edbacked No44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.434223.8%10 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes32c39.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca9b…56eebacked Yes27c39.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.681010%1 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick40cpaid-72.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes31c35.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No31c34.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No74c33.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.861,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x243f…589ebacked No70c33.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.076866.2%45 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes41c32.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4114637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes65c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.158640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d9f…b41ebacked Yes51c30.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5986…f763backed Yes49c30.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.531,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.131442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes68c29.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997f…000abacked No69c28.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9814548.3%70 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked No38c28.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.437233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No56c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.324,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes65c27.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.134346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb342…79e3backed No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.562065%13 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1449547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes61c24.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No67c23.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2204…2c95backed No70c23.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed No65c20.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.238665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No75c19.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.876371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…e7acbacked Yes60c18.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No72c17.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8916355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No70c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.110055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes66c16.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761338.5%5 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick63cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3c0…8032backed No70c15.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.72347.8%11 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-28.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.