Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x223dfa8c5299894db86790ebb33fac75d3e9db99da920142d09ee879676a3cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,352 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 56c | 623.91$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.67 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 570$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 463.83$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 61c | 381.44$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 56c | 301.21$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.32 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 36c | 299.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 68c | 299.84$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 288.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes | 39c | 257.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 15c | 237.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 62c | 229.6$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed Yes | 6c | 208.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 30c | 200.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 175.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 170.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 163.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 149.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 50c | 143.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 63c | 143.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 141.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 37c | 136.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 39c | 121.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 28c | 120.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 119.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 116.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 111.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 11c | 106.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 94.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 92.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 90.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 87.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 33c | 84.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 33c | 76.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 44c | 74.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 34c | 73.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 46c | 72.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 50c | 62.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 51c | 58.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed No | 51c | 48.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 38c | 47.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 30c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…fef7backed Yes | 68c | 43.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 68c | 41.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 39.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…56eebacked Yes | 27c | 39.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 31c | 34.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 70c | 33.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 41c | 32.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9f…b41ebacked Yes | 51c | 30.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…f763backed Yes | 49c | 30.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 68c | 29.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 38c | 28.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 23.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2204…2c95backed No | 70c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 65c | 20.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…e7acbacked Yes | 60c | 18.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 72c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes | 66c | 16.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 70c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.