Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac7393b7103104f3c2e5ce0af70d78f64e4eab707d985d2ca1d1561247fded3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,674 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 65c | 766.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.08 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 764.14$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.79 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 594.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 356.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 75c | 268.27$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 220.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.67 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 26c | 197$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 28c | 185$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.93 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Yes | 32c | 155.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 26c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 139.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 27c | 139.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 49c | 119.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 119.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 21c | 114$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 54c | 113$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 59c | 110.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 108.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 23c | 105.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 56c | 101.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 41c | 95.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 38c | 93.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 89.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 30c | 86.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 47c | 85.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 15c | 85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 19c | 83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 71c | 81.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 80.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 27c | 75.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 28c | 74.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 37c | 73.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 71.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 28c | 71.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 42c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 69.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 67.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 69c | 67.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 49c | 61.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 26c | 57.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 24c | 55.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 45c | 53.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 50.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 42c | 50.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 48.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 75c | 45.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 33c | 45.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 23c | 44.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 75c | 42.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 30c | 40.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 54c | 36.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked No | 73c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 74c | 22.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 78c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 76c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.