World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d05295e1f038b06dd7bbc0e078ef189f7ad046dd72463d000201f8d840679d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 79c | 503.76$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 31c | 400.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 76c | 307.3$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 21c | 186.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 184.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 26c | 180.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 177.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 9c | 144.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 117.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 24c | 112.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 23c | 105.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 78c | 102.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 76.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 62.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 52.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 59c | 45.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 28c | 39.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 60c | 37.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 73c | 33.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 48c | 33.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 33.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…50eebacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…89aebacked No | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 69c | 21.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf2…e987backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.