World Politics · resolved market
Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d0d82a3606ee435240d5dccbec3b83d58b5d0aa8f8fa360696c5f38c495bc69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 22c | 2,967$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 78c | 1,492$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 78c | 1,381$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,341$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 76c | 1,327$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked No | 76c | 1,198$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed No | 76c | 1,087$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 24c | 1,071$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 78c | 1,001$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 24c | 786$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 24c | 767$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 24c | 732$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 24c | 670$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 24c | 657$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 76c | 627$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 75c | 574$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes | 25c | 574$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 22c | 516$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 11c | 489$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 22c | 485$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 76c | 444$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 78c | 155.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed No | 78c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +454.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 21c | 56.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will GERB-SDS win 70 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will GERB-SDS win between 50-54 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will GERB-SDS win between 55-59 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will GERB-SDS win between 65-69 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will GERB-SDS win fewer than 50 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.