Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d33d9d26286e385dbe74c7ea7ff2f954ccd2992975c2d1dfa43b5f599533dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 42c | 277$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 42c | 210.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 49c | 208$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 200.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 189.64$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 7c | 158.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 19c | 152.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 80c | 147.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 104.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 97.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 66c | 94.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 39c | 76.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 75.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 61.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 61.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 55.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 53.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 41c | 48.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 47.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 54c | 46.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 64c | 44.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 73c | 40.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 33c | 40.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 46c | 35.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 33c | 35.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd5…321bbacked Yes | 51c | 31.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 49c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 52c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 51c | 27.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 47c | 25.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 53c | 20.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 73c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 68c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 68c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.