Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d410ccd38d71394832ed7e3f1a809b70bb72bb99a2aac02e294b90474cd09b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Illinois State Redbirds, Drake Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb729…4e2ebacked Drake Bulldogs | 54c | 8,377$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 6,662$3,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.97 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Drake Bulldogs | 50c | 1,234$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.59 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 717$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Drake Bulldogs | 50c | 667$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois State Redbirds | 52c | 566.65$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.17 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Drake Bulldogs | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 48c | 256.1$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 244.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.89 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Drake Bulldogs | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Drake Bulldogs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 120.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Drake Bulldogs | 49c | 120.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 114.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Illinois State Redbirds | 54c | 95.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Drake Bulldogs | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Illinois State Redbirds | 48c | 55.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Drake Bulldogs | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…e817backed Drake Bulldogs | 53c | 44.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…b908backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-9.5)this page
- Drake Bulldogs vs. Illinois State RedbirdsIllinois State Redbirds won
- Drake Bulldogs vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 143.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.