Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Drake Bulldogs vs. Illinois State Redbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0858260cc6a4e397d68c498d2e575a59f9818b389654d411488429805bcff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Drake Bulldogs, Illinois State Redbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 3,454$2,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.87 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf600…da8abacked Drake Bulldogs | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…3a6bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 2,799$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Drake Bulldogs | 8c | 2,500$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…8edcbacked Drake Bulldogs | 21c | 2,414$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Drake Bulldogs | 21c | 2,410$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Drake Bulldogs | 19c | 720.71$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.93 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Drake Bulldogs | 18c | 587.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…6c3fbacked Drake Bulldogs | 11c | 586.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Illinois State Redbirds | 78c | 335.81$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Drake Bulldogs | 20c | 247$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 201$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Drake Bulldogs | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Drake Bulldogs | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5086…5080backed Drake Bulldogs | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Drake Bulldogs | 20c | 181.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Drake Bulldogs | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 79c | 114$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed Drake Bulldogs | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 31.3%73 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Drake Bulldogs | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Drake Bulldogs | 19c | 93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Drake Bulldogs | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Drake Bulldogs | 18c | 59.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…05f2backed Drake Bulldogs | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…f396backed Illinois State Redbirds | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 29.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…ef6ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Drake Bulldogs vs. Illinois State Redbirdsthis page
- Drake Bulldogs vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 143.5Over won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-9.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.