Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d6b4a8ea3b93c58feae313336ef35f7630d06218108639f0d9ccbbafdcdab8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 60c | 387.89$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 46c | 128.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 128.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 118.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 54c | 112.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 108.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 57c | 101.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 60c | 99.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 91.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…4261backed Yes | 49c | 82.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 58c | 69.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 41c | 68.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 61c | 59.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 57.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 53.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 52.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 53c | 50.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…48fdbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 45.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 43.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 43.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 36.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 56c | 35.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 34.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 34.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 41c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 47c | 32.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 30.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 53c | 30.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 47c | 27.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 57c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 59c | 25.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 55c | 23.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 23.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 57c | 21.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76de…85ccbacked No | 61c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 16.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.