Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234f8dc6c49a2548ae9ca3b4e4253dd4bdf6848bcd5f5c69f9141114eb658ce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 67c | 442.7$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 23c | 439.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 41c | 166.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 132.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 130.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 62c | 127.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 39c | 123.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 102.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 102.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 28c | 97.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 94.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 28c | 93.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 91.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 73c | 85.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 61c | 81.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 42c | 73.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 63.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 62.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 74c | 62.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 77c | 60.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 54c | 57.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 70c | 53.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 39c | 51.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 56c | 50.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 22c | 49.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 36c | 48.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 42c | 48.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 79c | 45.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 66c | 43.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 45c | 42.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 42.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 66c | 42.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 33c | 42.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 53c | 42.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 41.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…76efbacked Yes | 41c | 39.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 36.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 35.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 35.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 32.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 35c | 30.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 36c | 30.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0296…ad01backed Yes | 50c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…65d0backed No | 65c | 27.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 23.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 50c | 21.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 80c | 16.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed No | 74c | 13.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.