Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d72382a27a49c82b7e4ed32818dd9c69d0d4a9cec29d7bb0fc890908a402b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 449.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 309.18$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 184.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 39c | 184.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.01 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 14c | 151.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 76c | 131.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 50c | 130.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 119.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 114.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 82.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 69.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 16c | 69.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 77c | 65.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 27c | 60.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 77c | 55.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 23c | 51.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 50.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 49.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 46.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 46.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 58c | 44.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 29c | 40.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 38.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 35.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 34.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 33.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 48c | 32.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…554ebacked Yes | 44c | 29.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 49c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d13…033bbacked Yes | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 16.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 14.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 44°C or higher on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.