Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b2395b013d980ec536cc25e5a3e941fbb9a2de6aa2026750c11f9b93f1053b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bf1…554ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,089$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 32c | 508.89$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…8ef9backed Yes | 5c | 413.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 309.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 305.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 218.42$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 10c | 197.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 19c | 161.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 31c | 161.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 126.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 121.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 103.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 97.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 16c | 91.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 34c | 89.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 14c | 84.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 19c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 21c | 76.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 54.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 47.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 25c | 46.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 26c | 42.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 37.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 75c | 33.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 28.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 25.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 22.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 14.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 80c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 44°C or higher on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.