Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d9ef96248e4f8d60d7165f7c807a37904df487e4d3635524e59a45c7c80acba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 29c | 1,630$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.9 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 386.53$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…d9d7backed No | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +525%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 288.54$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 9c | 220.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.66 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 196$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 6c | 168.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.24 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 167.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 69c | 136.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 126.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 123.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 119$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 117$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 41c | 93.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 34c | 86.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 84.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 59c | 80.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 72.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 39c | 69.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 22c | 67.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked No | 71c | 67.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 65.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 62.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 57.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 22c | 53.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 73c | 49.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 49.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 49.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 44.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 44.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 43.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 45c | 43.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 63c | 41.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 36.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 65c | 36.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 40c | 35.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 34.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 32.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 51c | 31.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 44c | 30.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…6775backed Yes | 41c | 26.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 73c | 24.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 69c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 22.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 60c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 65c | 20.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 19.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 78c | 17.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 73c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.