Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df45c7b22d608db6b7fda7b836c046af3d265a6f87086300a39a58165c99a75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 2,188$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 6c | 2,161$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed Yes | 7c | 789.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 15c | 749.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 15c | 618.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x693b…a48abacked Yes | 2c | 549.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 10c | 482.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 354.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 6c | 321.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 305.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 281.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 8c | 250.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 230.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 217.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 11c | 182.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 163.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 15c | 147.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 138.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…a1d6backed Yes | 25c | 121.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 101.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 96.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 15c | 84.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 24c | 83.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 20c | 82.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 81.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 14c | 79.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 78.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed Yes | 16c | 75.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 17c | 61.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 40.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 32.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 27.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 80c | 25.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 75c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.