Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd42ef6c35b134e04e677e56d9f108229e56b7340b984dcb080f6f69dae8ebe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6954…f394backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,329$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.51 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…4379backed Yes | 5c | 1,127$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 76c | 1,093$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,081$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 52c | 767.63$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.81 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 21c | 683.95$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 23c | 623.42$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.66 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 25c | 434.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.72 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 9c | 434.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 430.32$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 336.83$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 28c | 325.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.87 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 59c | 295.12$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.06 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 281$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 38c | 265.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.24 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 78c | 257.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 53c | 254.43$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…b520backed Yes | 80c | 246.9$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 213.14$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 57c | 165.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 34c | 163.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 31c | 158.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 143.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 13c | 142.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 132.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…a1d6backed Yes | 57c | 130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 129.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 9c | 124.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 39c | 121.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 52c | 121.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 52c | 119.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 27c | 118$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 60c | 108.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed No | 80c | 105.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 100.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 21c | 95.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 52c | 94.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 64c | 91.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 22c | 91.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 44c | 90.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 90.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 25c | 89.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 72c | 86.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 58c | 86.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 14c | 83.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 51c | 81.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 80c | 81.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 80.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 64c | 78.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0429…b8a0backed Yes | 59c | 77.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 60c | 76.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 48c | 71.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 38c | 70.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 39c | 69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 22c | 65.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 51c | 63.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 63c | 59.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 56c | 53.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…d640backed Yes | 63c | 50.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked No | 39c | 50.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 48.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 57c | 46.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…e0f3backed Yes | 22c | 46.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 74c | 41.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 45c | 39.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…7249backed Yes | 63c | 39.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 38.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 80c | 36.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…17ebbacked Yes | 58c | 36.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 30.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 30.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.