Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706f402d95f612607fad8623dd2afefa811ffdd4a41f73355eb8c49d26e72004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,161$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 8c | 987.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 12c | 949.85$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 420.46$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 352.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 15c | 334.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 324.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 25c | 310.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 291$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 33c | 250.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 247$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 243.07$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 63c | 216.83$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 216.05$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 213.75$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 23c | 208.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 54c | 191.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 179.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 152.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 13c | 151.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 138.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 79c | 133.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 127.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 124$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 111.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 109.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c53…b033backed Yes | 27c | 88.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…a1d6backed Yes | 55c | 87.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f0a4backed Yes | 13c | 87.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 68c | 86.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 27c | 85.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 85.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 83.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…4261backed No | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 79.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 79.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 78.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 78.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 75.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 48c | 72.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 30c | 69.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 39c | 64.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 61.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 61.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 32c | 55.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 23c | 52.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 76c | 51.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 31c | 48.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 73c | 46.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed Yes | 33c | 45.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 69c | 45.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 77c | 42.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 69c | 42.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 72c | 42.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 30c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 40.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 26c | 38.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 28c | 36.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 35.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 32c | 34.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 68c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…b17abacked No | 68c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed No | 76c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 72c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.