Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb41f7b1e097e12a5e7550a1926193b77c113c8668492339196a780d0160be85f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,511$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.85 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 21c | 609.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.86 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 28c | 567.12$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.68 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 422$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 386.76$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 348.65$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 318.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 302.74$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 285.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.34 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 258.95$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 247.49$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 31c | 243.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.63 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 12c | 232.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.05 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 223.91$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 23c | 221.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 198$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 197.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed Yes | 22c | 195.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 182.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 176.14$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 18c | 170.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 163.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 16c | 156.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 144.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 52c | 143.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 133.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 33c | 127.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 22c | 121$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 120.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 22c | 117.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 110.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 57c | 110.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 109.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 34c | 107.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 35c | 106.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 76c | 106.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 71c | 105.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 25c | 105.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 105.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 37c | 102.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 19c | 100.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 45c | 98.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 31c | 95.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 95.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 72c | 93.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 25c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 86.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 85.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 22c | 81.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 74c | 78.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 17c | 75.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 29c | 71.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 18c | 71.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 18c | 68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 49c | 66.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 65.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 38c | 64.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 64.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 63.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…4379backed Yes | 47c | 59.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 22c | 58.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 76c | 57.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 64c | 57.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 74c | 57.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 28c | 54.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 26c | 54.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…4fa8backed Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 35c | 52.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 27c | 46.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 30c | 46.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 30c | 43.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 23c | 42.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 76c | 39.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 38.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 37.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f0a4backed Yes | 34c | 35.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 79c | 33.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 68c | 30.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.