Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df519e65da419d11ed01106b6beee535bea1bbde6693d94ad497f6cc3cd8c31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,291$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.35 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 16c | 549.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 13c | 341.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 336.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 79c | 316$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 79c | 310.82$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 236.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 9c | 210.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 12c | 199.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 194.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 79c | 180.12$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 124.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 78c | 114.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 113.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 10c | 108.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 15c | 100.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 80.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 80.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 17c | 75.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 71.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 61.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 58.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 22c | 51.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 50.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 46.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 39.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 36.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 32.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 75c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.