Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcca08e60096690bd95d4395c1898cd5ec8a6a2a6515899ce0449254cd962f729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,024$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 36c | 899.77$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.77 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 39c | 540.83$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.86 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 371.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 310.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 56c | 271.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 245.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 31c | 235.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.43 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 227.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.48 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 214$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 213.71$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 60c | 205.43$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 42c | 199.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 67c | 195.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 192.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 190.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 187.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 37c | 177.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 58c | 176.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 38c | 175.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 70c | 172.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 79c | 172.07$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 149.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 149.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 119.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 48c | 117.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 64c | 107.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 24c | 105.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 104.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 63c | 99.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 93.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 74c | 92.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 86.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 85.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 81.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 75.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 64c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…26c3backed No | 80c | 64.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 66c | 61.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 68c | 61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 59.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 68c | 58.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 58.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 79c | 56.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 56.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 43c | 54.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 53.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 50.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 63c | 48.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 27c | 44.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 42.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 36c | 42.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 41.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 57c | 40.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 72c | 39.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 36c | 37.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 78c | 37.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 64c | 36.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 33.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 32.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 67c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 73c | 31.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 30.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff4…ba52backed No | 74c | 29.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd415…44f6backed No | 75c | 28.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 28.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 27.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 37c | 27.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 75c | 26.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked Yes | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 24.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 70c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 46c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 63c | 22.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.