Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db295737e758844611071cd475a4b619aad05e88c3d8e12b30597865321ba10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 28c | 499.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 62c | 491.38$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.83 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 33c | 260.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 256.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 28c | 225.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 34c | 217.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…077fbacked No | 66c | 203.79$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 156.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 136.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…26c3backed Yes | 39c | 130.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 64c | 129.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 125.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 121$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 115.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 113.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 72c | 95.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 94.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 36c | 90.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 27c | 90.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 90.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 88.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 81.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 81.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 78.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 33c | 78.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 77.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 39c | 77.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 62.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 61.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…2b19backed No | 50c | 59.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 56.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 38c | 52.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 50.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 45c | 46.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 79c | 45.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…80d8backed Yes | 52c | 44.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 44.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 28c | 43.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 42.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 36c | 40.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 40.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 39.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 67c | 38.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 30c | 37.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 37.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe3…cc7abacked Yes | 51c | 36.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 34.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 37c | 33.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 32.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 39c | 30.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 63c | 30.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…9638backed No | 52c | 28.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 70c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 26.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2f…af0dbacked Yes | 38c | 26.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…ef78backed Yes | 51c | 21.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…04e4backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.