Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e153aeec3f49bf9ad0befb7a25f50311fce6bcac7a59b7a41151d74b70aaeab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 4,225$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.94 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 21c | 1,249$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.29 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 18c | 1,142$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.58 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 20c | 613.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked Over | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 80c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 80c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 19c | 71.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 80c | 66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 20c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5this page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.