Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dd9fad0b134068dc48a3904abe7b3dd0644c830668281395948be334ab8cd10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 3,379$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 59c | 2,332$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 615.93$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 18c | 612.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…c607backed Over | 62c | 351.74$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 17c | 325.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 64c | 310.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 67c | 254.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Under | 5c | 250.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 73c | 173.07$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 70c | 150.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 18c | 148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 146.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 100.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 64c | 94.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 68c | 73.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 18c | 72.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 76c | 66.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Under | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…fc48backed Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 75c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Over | 71c | 28.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 42c | 28.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…83ddbacked Under | 39c | 26.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5this page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.